Democratic candidates made up significant ground among key demographic groups in the 2026 midterms, according to The AP Voter Poll, reversing many of the gains President Donald Trump made with the traditional Democratic coalition in the 2024 presidential election.
The AP Voter Poll, a sweeping survey of more than 100,000 voters in all 50 states, showed that young voters swung sharply left. Democratic candidates’ performance among voters under 30 this year far exceeded the support this group gave Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 AP VoteCast survey.
Hispanic voters, who shifted toward Trump in 2024 as well, moved toward Democrats this year, as did Black voters – particularly Black men. Many Moderates— who overwhelmingly said Congress was not doing enough to put checks and balances on the presidency — backed Democratic candidates nationally and were important for Democratic victories in several key Senate races.
And as most voters said inflation had caused them and their family at least “moderate” hardship over the past year, voters with a 2025 household income of less than $50,000 also shifted away from Republicans, compared to 2024.
Here is how five key demographic groups moved in the 2026 election, according to The AP Voter Poll:
After relatively high support for Trump in the 2024 election, young voters snapped back toward the Democratic Party in this year’s midterms.
The AP Voter Poll showed about 7 in 10 voters under 30 nationally said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while about 3 in 10 said they voted for the Republican. That was a dramatic shift from 2024, when the youngest voters were roughly split between Trump and Harris.
Most first-time midterm voters, who skew younger, also mostly supported the Democratic candidate.
Both young voters and first-time voters made up a fairly small share of voters. Only about 1 in 10 voters in the 2026 national electorate are under 30, for instance, which limited the impact of the shift.
But young voters’ displeasure with the country and its leadership was clear. About half of young voters said they were “angry” about the way things were going in the country today, compared with only about one-third of voters ages 65 and older. And about 6 in 10 voters under 30 said one reason for their vote for the U.S. House was to express opposition to Trump, compared to about half of voters ages 30-44, and about 4 in 10 voters ages 45 and older.
Young voters shifted toward the Democrats in each of the Senate races where the Democratic Party picked up a seat, including in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina.
Republicans appeared to lose most — if not all — of Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters in 2024.
Only about one-third of Hispanic voters say they backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, while roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump two years ago. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally say they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race.
This shift was evident in the Texas Senate race that Democrat James Talarico won over Republican Ken Paxton. The AP Voter Poll showed roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters in the Texas Senate race supported Talarico, while only about 3 in 10 voted for Paxton. The group was more closely split between Trump and Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to AP VoteCast.
And even in the Florida Senate race, where Republican Sen. Ashley Moody managed to narrowly win reelection, less than half of Hispanic voters supported Moody, while Trump definitively won this group two years earlier.
