Minnesota Republicans were hopeful of an electoral breakthrough in state politics in the 2026 elections. They were financially competitive in all statewide races, had a potential winning issue with fraud, and the telegenic former TV sports reporter, Michelle Tafoya, headed their ticket.
Instead, they received a stunning rebuke. Lisa Demuth lost the gubernatorial race to Amy Klobuchar by the largest margin in decades, amassing 42% to Klobuchar’s 55%. Peggy Flanagan’s 53% to 43% win over Tafoya in the U.S. Senate race also proved to be a resounding victory.
Democrat Jake Johnson upset Republican Brad Finstad in the 1st Congressional District by a few hundred votes – a stunning reversal of Finstad’s 17-point victory two years before, although a recount is coming. Democrats attained comfortable majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature.
Minnesota voters’ concerns were representative of a national blue wave, evident in the Democrats gaining at least seven U.S. Senate seats, at least 30 U.S. House seats and five governorships.
What explains these results? Democrats in Minnesota and the nation fixed President Donald Trump as their target and that worked for them — big time.
The Trump 2026 strategy was to use the president himself as the center of the campaign. That entailed a midterm convention, constant campaigning during the last 30 days and — as usual — constant presidential availability to the media every day of the week. Election night proved that was too much Trump for many voters, nationally and in Minnesota.
Trump has always been a disruptive figure in American politics. He became the vessel for delivering dissatisfaction with the Obama and Biden presidencies. But once in office, he has often delivered more disruptions than voters can tolerate.
Trump has delivered a steady diet of disruption in his second term — ICE controversies, high gas prices, a war without an apparent end in sight and tariffs that roil rural producers. He made the election about himself and, with the bumptious governance he has provided, received repudiation nationally and in Minnesota.
The last pre-election KSTP poll by SurveyUSA gave insights into why that happened. The main issue for voters was affordability and the cost of living, so rated by 39% of voters. Fraud, the GOP’s potential selling point, was rated number one by only 17%.
In Minnesota, despite competitive GOP resources, the election centered on Trump, not fraud — and that led to big DFL victories. Demuth lost to Klobuchar by the largest margin for a GOP loser in this century. It is far from clear that the GOP will be competitive in statewide elections again.
Minnesota is going the way of Oregon and Washington. All are states with large populations of highly educated white voters who have turned away from Trump this year. The affluent suburbs of major cities in these states have turned into Democratic bastions. Minnesota is turning blue, as Oregon and Washington have — with pockets of red in rural areas.
What is Minnesota’s future place on the American political map? State contests will draw little outside GOP money in the future. The state GOP party remains much less institutionally robust than the DFL. The state’s purple hue is turning blue.
The real action in Minnesota will center on Klobuchar’s relations with the majority DFL caucuses in the state House and Senate. In her acceptance speech on election night, she noted that her DFL audience will not always like what she does as governor.
That is certain to be true within her legislative caucuses. She will face resistance from the left faction of both legislative caucuses as she attempts to reform government and follow through on her promise to cut taxes. Fireworks lie ahead, but they will occur within the DFL party.
Steven Schier is the emeritus Congdon professor of political science at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota.
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